Forecasts for 2024

VORtech develops computational software, both for and with clients. Much of this software is used to forecast something. From water levels to traffic flows, from the growth of sustainable energy sources to emissions from chemical processes. But not every forecast can be computed. Sometimes, it just takes human intuition. To close the year 2023, we thought it would be interesting to see if humans can collectively make good forecasts without computing for a number of topics in our field:

  • The Python programming language. This language has become the most popular programming language, in November 2023 scoring 13,86% in the TIOBE index. It is also used for complex computations and machine learning.  Will this language grow further or is another language going to eat into its market share?
  • The European exascale supercomputer that will be installed in Germany this year promises to be one of the most powerful computers in the world. It will be able to do more than a trillion computations per second. But the race is still open as other countries are also working on extremely fast computers. Will this European supercomputer make it to the top of the ranking?
  • Earth Overshoot Day is the day of the year at which humanity has used more resources than the earth can provide in that year. This day has come ever earlier with each year over the past decades. In 2023, it was on August 2. As a company, we hope to contribute to a more sustainable society by using advanced computing. What will be the date of Earth Overshoot Day, in 2024?

In the figure below, you can see the results of the collective wisdom of our relations. The results are are clear:

  • Our relations expect that the popularity of Python will increase further to 14% or more (notice that there was an error in the categories).
  • Our relations are pretty confident that the European Exascale computer will be one of the ten fastest in the world.
  • Regarding Earth Overshoot day, our relations are pessimistic: almost all expected that humanity would be sparing our planet even less than we do now.

In 2024, we will be checking to see what the correct answers are. Check out our blog page and LinkedIn page from time to time to see how well we did with the forecasts.

Events